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Weekly Price & Time: Bigger USD Move Ahead?

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
28 March 2014 15:30 GMT

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD testing key support level - break will pave way for more important decline
  • USD/JPY nearing big break?
  • GOLD closing in on important retracement levels

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_MAR_28_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Bigger USD Move Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its lowest level in a month this week
  • A weekly close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 will turn us negative
  • Fibonacci resistance at 1.3970 remains important and needs to be convincingly overcome to signal the ‘all clear’ for a more important run higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: May look to sell a close under 1.3730.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3640

*1.3730

1.3760

1.3855

*1.3955/70

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_MAR_28_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Bigger USD Move Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in a sideways to higher range above the year’s low near 100.75
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • The year’s low near 100.75 is critical support with a move below having very ominous implications for the exchange rate
  • A cycle turn window is seen here
  • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*100.75

101.35

102.70

103.75

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_MAR_28_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Bigger USD Move Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD broke below key support at 1310 to fall to its lowest level in a month and a half this week
  • We are negative on the metal while below 1350
  • The 50% retracement of the December to March advance at 1285 is key support with weakness below needed to trigger a new leg lower
  • An important turn window is seen between April 4-9
  • A daily close back over 1350 will turn us positive on the metal again

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1350. May look to reduce shorts into upcoming turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1260

*1285

1290

1318

*1350

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about themHERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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28 March 2014 15:30 GMT