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Price & Time: Gold Leading the Way for Currencies?

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
26 March 2014 12:05 GMT

Talking Points

  • Persistent weakness in metal warns period of general USD strength nearing
  • USD/JPY volatility compression points to looming trend move
  • USD/CAD turns at key Fibonacci level

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_26_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Leading the Way for Currencies?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to meander around the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 102.35
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while over 101.35
  • The 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high near 102.50 is immediate resistance, but a move through the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is needed to re-instill positive momentum
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • A move under 101.35 would turn us immediately negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while over 101.35.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

101.75

102.35

102.50

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_MAR_26_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Leading the Way for Currencies?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD reversed last week from the 200% extension of the 2H12 range in the 1.1260 area
  • Our near-term trend remains higher in Funds while over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1065
  • Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1170, but a move through 1.1260 is really required to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen tomorrow
  • A daily close under 1.1065 would turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: We like the long side while over 1.1065.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.1065

1.1115

1.1140

1.1170

*1.1260

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_MAR_26_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Leading the Way for Currencies?

Gold has come under steady pressure since recording a high just shy of 1392 during a key cycle turn window (8.6 months from 1H13 low) last week. The ease at which the metal broke through the 2nd square root relationship of the YTD high at 1318 on Monday keeps focus lower with the 50% retracement of the December/March range at 1285 now at risk. With an important cycle turn window for USD expected later in the week we can help but wonder if the general weakness being exhibited in the metal is a leading indicator for a period of general dollar strength against the currencies in the weeks ahead? The price action over the next days should answer this question. As for Gold, the next important metal specific cycle turn window is seen around April 4-9. Only unexpected aggressive strength above 1360 would signal the uptrend has resumed ahead of schedule.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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26 March 2014 12:05 GMT