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Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks Out, But Not Out of the "Woods"

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
07 March 2014 16:30 GMT

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD prints new multi-year high
  • USD/JPY trades at highest level in over a month
  • GOLD entering critical time period

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_MAR_7_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks Out, But Not Out of the "Woods"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its highest level in almost two and a half years this week
  • A weekly close above the 2013 closing high near 1.3800 will shift our trend bias to positive
  • A convergence of the 50% retracement of the 2008/2010 decline and the 127% extension of the 1Q13 move lower near 1.3955/70 is important resistance and needs to be convincingly overcome to signal the ‘all clear’ for a more important run higher
  • The next cycle turn window of importance is seen around the middle of March

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3640

1.3765

1.3860

*1.3955/70

1.4000

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_MAR_7_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks Out, But Not Out of the "Woods"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded at its highest level in over a month on Friday
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • The 101.35 level is a key downside pivot that needs to be broken in order to re-instill downside momentum
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of the month
  • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

102.35

103.20

103.75

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_MAR_7_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks Out, But Not Out of the "Woods"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD touched its highest level since late October this week before running into resistance near the 2ndsquare root relationship of the August high near 1357
  • Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2013 closing low now near 1300
  • The 1357 level is key resistance with a close over this level needed to signal that a more important move higher is unfolding
  • The middle of the month looks important for the metal from a cycle perspective with March 12th and 17th looking particularly key
  • A daily close under 1300 would turn us negative on Gold

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1300.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1300

1321

1339

*1357

1377

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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07 March 2014 16:30 GMT