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Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Break of Key Support

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
03 January 2014 16:35 GMT

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD reverses from key cycle turn window
  • USD/JPY fails just shy of long-term retracement
  • Gold stages reversal from Fibonacci extension

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_Jan_3_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Break of Key Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD extended its decline following last week’s failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline
  • A weekly close below 1.3655 will turn us negative on the Euro
  • The 2012 closing high near 1.3800 is now critical resistance with strength above needed to relieve immediate downside pressure
  • The latter half of the month is the next medium-term cycle turn window

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like adding to shorts on a weekly close below 1.3655.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3535

1.3590

1.3605

*1.3800

1.3895

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_Jan_3_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Break of Key Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY failed just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the 2007/2011 at 105.55 this week
  • Our broader trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above 103.35
  • The 105.55 level remains critical resistance that must be overcome soon if another important leg higher is to unfold
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen next week
  • A weekly close below 103.35 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 103.35

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*103.35

104.00

104.55

104.80

*105.55

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_Jan_3_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Break of Key Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD reversed from the 161.8% extension of the October advance this week at 1184
  • Our broader trend bias is negative in the metal while below the 2nd square root relationship of the 2012 low at 1250
  • Gann support at 1206 is important, but only weakness below 1184 will confirm that the downtrend is resuming
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over 1250 will turn us positive on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square here, but will look to go long following a break of 1250.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1184

1206

1235

*1250

1263

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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03 January 2014 16:35 GMT