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Price & Time: Gold Refusing to Join the "Party"

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
27 November 2013 13:35 GMT

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY climbs back over 101.70
  • GBP/USD closing in on new highs for the year
  • GOLD closes again on important Gann support level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_27_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Refusing to Join the "Party"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY reversed from the 3x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high at 101.15 early on Thursday
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in USD/JPY while over the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 99.65
  • The 4x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high at 101.80 is immediate resistance ahead of the next zone of importance at 102.70
  • The 1st half of December is the next cycle turn window of importance
  • A daily close below 99.65 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Favor the long side while over 99.65.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.65

101.15

101.80

101.80

*102.70

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_NOV_27_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Refusing to Join the "Party"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to its highest level since early January on Thursday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above 1.6135
  • A convergence of the 127% extension of the late October/November decline and the 13th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.6375 is the next attraction/reaction zone of importance
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen on Friday
  • Only a daily close below the 11th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.6135 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.6135.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6375

1.6200

1.6300

1.6330

*1.6375

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_NOV_27_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Refusing to Join the "Party"

Gold continues to perplex. Despite a fairly offered tone over the past week the metal has not been able to close under key Gann support at 1242 (5th square root relationship of the August high). Given this failure to crack the 1242 support level we suppose there is still a possibility that the metal is in the midst of some sort of bottoming process from last week’s cycle turn window. However, for this scenario to gain a bit more credence in our view we would need to see the metal make some more immediate upside progress. Traction over this week’s high at 1258 would be initial proof, but a move through the 1x2 Gann angle line of the August high near 1287 is really required to confirm that some sort of bottom is indeed in place. A close under 1242 at any time would undermine this potential.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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27 November 2013 13:35 GMT