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Price & Time: Key Couple of Days For Gold

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
20 November 2013 12:45 GMT

Talking Points

  • Cycle turn window here in Gold
  • USD/JPY needs to overcome key resistance soon
  • USD/CHF extends retracement

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_20_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Couple of Days For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below key Gann resistance at 100.65
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above the 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60
  • Traction over 100.65 on a daily close basis is needed to validate the latest move higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • Only a daily close below 98.60 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 98.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*98.60

99.70

99.95

100.40

*100.65

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_20_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Couple of Days For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF has come under steady downside pressure since failing a couple of weeks ago at the 61.8% retracement of the September to October decline near .9250
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above .9045
  • The .9160 area is immediate resistance, but traction over .9250 is really required to signal an upside resumption
  • Thursday is a minor cycle turn window
  • A daily close below .9045 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9045.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9045

0.9070

0.9105

0.9160

*0.9250

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_NOV_20_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Couple of Days For Gold

Gold has come under renewed downside pressure over the past few days. With a clear head & shoulders looking topping pattern on the daily chart the technical outlook looks fairly ominous for the yellow metal here from a classic technical perspective. However, cycle analysis suggests some caution might be required as the next 48 hours or so are a clear medium-term cycle turn window from where the commodity could try to stage a reversal of some kind. Key support looks to be a convergence of the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low and the 5th square root relationship of the 3Q13 high between 1248 and 1243. A failure to get below the latter on a daily closing basis by Friday would favor a general move higher next week.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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20 November 2013 12:45 GMT