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Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Major Break?

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
18 October 2013 15:40 GMT

Talking Points

  • Euro closing in on new YTD highs
  • USD/JPY nearing multi-month triangle apex
  • Gold rebounds off major support level

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Weekly_PT_Euro_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Major Break?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD finally broke above the 8th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3675 this week and is now within striking distance of new year-to-date highs
  • The broader trend bias is higher in the Euro while above important Gann support at 1.3475
  • A move through the 1.3710 year-to-date high is needed to expose Gann attractions at 1.3770 and higher
  • The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A weekly close below 1.3475 would turn us negative on the Euro.

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to initiate tactical long positions in the Euro.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3475

1.3595

1.3690

*1.3710

1.3770

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Weekly_PT_Euro_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Major Break?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY breached resistance at 98.60 intra-week, but a close over this level looks unlikely
  • Our broader trend bias is lower in the rate while below this level on a weekly closing basis
  • Weakness under the 7th square root progression of the year’s high at 96.60 is needed to re-invigorate immediate downside prospects
  • The end of the month is the next clear potential medium-term cycle turn window
  • Only aggressive strength over 98.60 on a weekly closing basis will turn us positive again on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Square here, but will sell a break of 96.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.60

97.55

97.75

*98.60

99.60

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Weekly_PT_Euro_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Threatening Major Break?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD touched its lowest level in over three months this week before aggresively rebounding from just below the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low at 1260
  • Our trend bias is negative, but a weekly close over the second square root progression of this week’s low at 1322 will shift it to positive
  • The 1x1 line of the year’s low now at 1265 is important support and a close below this level is needed to signal a resumption of the broaer decline
  • Some minor turn windows are seen next week
  • A weekly close over 1322 will turn the technical outlook in the metal much more constructive

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Square here. May look to initiatiate tactical gold longs on a weekly close over 1322.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1265

1285

1316

*1322

1350

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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18 October 2013 15:40 GMT