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Weekly Price & Time: Looking For More Direction in the 4th Quarter

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
27 September 2013 17:50 GMT

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD unable to gain much traction over 1.3500
  • USD/JPY nearing the apex of a multi-month triangle
  • Gold still holding above key support zone

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_4th_qrtr_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Looking For More Direction in the 4th Quarter

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode near the 7th square root progression of the year’s low in the 1.3545 area
  • Only weakness below the September low near 1.3100 would shift the trend bias to negative
  • The 7th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3545 remains an important upside pivot with traction above needed to accelerate the advance towards important attractions at 1.3600 and 1.3665
  • A cycle turn window is seen next week
  • The 2nd square root progression of the month-to-date high at 1.3335 is important support, but only weakness below the September low near 1.3100 would turn negative

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to initiate tactical long positions in the Euro - ideally on weakness after next week.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3100

1.3335

1.3540

*1.3545

1.3600

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_4th_qrtr_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Looking For More Direction in the 4th Quarter

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode below key Gann resistance at 99.65 and Gann support at 97.60
  • While above the Gann convergence at 97.60 our trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 99.65 and 100.65 levels remain pivotal for the exchange rate with traction above the latter required to signal a broader upside resumption
  • The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • Weakness on a daily close basis below 97.60 would turn the broader technical outlook to negative in USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored over 97.60

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

96.55

*97.60

98.35

99.65

*100.65

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_4th_qrtr_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Looking For More Direction in the 4th Quarter

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD remains in consolidation mode above 1300
  • While over Gann support near 1292 our broader trend bias will remain higher in the metal
  • The 61.8% retracement of the May to June decline at 1370 is now a key upside pivot with traction above needed to signal a broader upside resumption
  • The middle of October is a cycle turn window
  • Weaknes below 1292 on a closing basis would turn the broader technical outlook on Gold very negative

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1294.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1273

*1294

1338

*1370

1419

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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27 September 2013 17:50 GMT