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Price & Time: Gold Nearing Major Downside Pivot

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
13 September 2013 16:00 GMT
  • Gold closing in on critical support level
  • USD/JPY still lacking upside momentum
  • Euro encounters Gann resistance at 1.3325

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Weekly_gold_nearing_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Nearing Major Downside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD rebounded off the 38% retracement of the year’s range last week to test Gann resistance near 1.3325 over the past few days
  • While below the 1.3415 2Q13 high our broader trend bias will remain lower in the Euro
  • A multi-day close below 1.3110 is needed to trigger a more important downside move
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • The 1.3325 area is immediate resistance, but only a close over 1.3415 turns the broader Euro outlook to positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3110

1.3220

1.3275

1.3325

*1.3415

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Weekly_gold_nearing_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Nearing Major Downside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded this week to just shy of Gann resistance related to the year’s high in the 100.65 area
  • While above the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 100.65 level is now a key pivot on the upside with a multi-day close above this level required to setup the next important advance in the rate
  • Late next week is a cycle turn window
  • A cluster of Gann supports near 98.60, 97.60 and 96.70 are important, but only weakness below .9375 will turn the broader outlook to negative in USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

97.60

98.60

99.35

*100.65

101.70

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Weekly_gold_nearing_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Nearing Major Downside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD weakened further this past week and broke under key retracement support at 1337
  • While over the 1270 support level our broader trend bias will remain higher in the metal
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is once again resistance and a close over this level is needed to reinvigorate upside prospects
  • Late next week is a cycle turn window
  • Weaknes below 1270 would undermine too much of the positive traction gained over the past few months and turn us negative on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1270.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1247

*1270

1316

*1350

1385

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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13 September 2013 16:00 GMT