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Price & Time: A 2 Trillion USD Short Squeeze?

By , Sr. Currency Strategist
10 May 2013 12:07 GMT

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_2trillion_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: A 2 Trillion USD Short Squeeze?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/JPY finally broke above the 100.00 psychological barrier on Thursday

-Our bias remains higher with immediate focus on the 161.8% extension of the late April decline in the 101.60 area

-A close above this level will further confirm the integrity of the latest push higher and will expose 102.45 and above

-Near-term focused cycles suggest scope for a minor turn early next week

-The 50% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 decline in the 99.80 area is now support and only a close beneath this level undermines the positive technical tone

Strategy: We continue to like longs positions. Only a close under 99.80 turns us negative.

AUD/USD:

PT_2trillion_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: A 2 Trillion USD Short Squeeze?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-AUD/USD has come under severe downside pressure over the past few days to record a new year-to-date low on Friday

-Some caution advised as we near a clonfluence of the 127% extension of the March to April advance, the 61.8% retracement of last year’s range and the 6th square root progression of the year’s high at .9975/90

-Our bias is lower, but weakness below this level is needed to maintain the immediate downside tack

-Very near-term cycles suggest early next week could see a minor turn in the rate

-The 50% retracement of last year’s range in the 1.0100 area is resistance and only strength over this level turns us positive on Aussie

Strategy: Like being short the AUD/USD whilst the rate is below 1.0100, but also like reducing further ahead of .9975.

GBP/USD:

PT_2trillion_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: A 2 Trillion USD Short Squeeze?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-GBP/USD failed again on Thursday at the 50% retracement of the year-to-date range in the 1.5585 area

-Subsequent weakness from this level has turned us negative on Cable with attention now on the 61.8% retracement of the late April advance in the 1.5350 area

-Weakness below this level is needed to confirm the integrity of the current decline and pave the way for a broader downside resumption

-A Gann square of nine time cycle relationship exists currently with the November 2007 high which gives further credence to this decline

-The 5th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1.5440 area is immediate resistance, but only over 1.5585 turns us positive on Cable

Strategy: Want to be short Cable whilst below 1.5585.

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_2trillion_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: A 2 Trillion USD Short Squeeze?

Gold in USD terms looks to be at a key cyclical inflection point here as a convergence of several different cyclical methodologies point to this timeframe’s significance. A simple day count reveals a burgeoning Fibonacci relationship between the latter half of this week, the year-to-date low, the March high and the February low. Given the trend leading into this turn window has been up this should lead to a resumption of the broader downtrend as we have been expecting. Friday’s weakness below the 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1432 area further confirms this view and opens the way for some sort of re-test of the 1320 area in the weeks ahead. We should mention that there is still a minor chance that this cyclical turn window could turn into some sort of low, but only strength over Thursday’s high in the 1477 area would signal that this is indeed happening.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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10 May 2013 12:07 GMT