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FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Ending Year at Channel and Fibonacci Confluence

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
28 December 2012 15:49 GMT

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

As we enter the final days of 2012, I’m closely monitoring…

USDJPY - The long term USDJPY inverse head and shoulders breakout the week that ended 12/14 has led to immediate gains. The traditional measuring technique yields an objective of about 9362. Currently testing upward sloping channel resistance and the 100% extension of the rally from the record low (I’m interested to see how the week closes), this would be a good time for some consolidation. 8520 is of interest as support…ESPECIALLY if on a news spike (fiscal circus anyone?).

AUDUSD – We’ve been following the AUDUSD triangle for quite some time. The massive structure, which began in July 2011, is probably a bullish triangle that eventually gives way to a thrust above 11080. However, the long awaited E wave is probably underway. Often sharp and deep in order to convince traders that the trend has changed, a drop below parity is likely before price finds bottom. 10415 is near term resistance.

USDMXN – I’ve been long since 12/17 (12.77 entry) but the upside is probably limited over the next week or so. Consolidation since the 12/24 high composes a clean triangle, probably as a 4th wave. The implications are for a thrust above 13.05 in order to complete 5 waves up from the 12/12 low. 13.16-13.19 is a target area. Longer term, price holding the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2011 low lends a bullish aura.

USDJPY - Weekly

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Ending_Year_at_Channel_and_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Ending Year at Channel and Fibonacci Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD - Weekly

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Ending_Year_at_Channel_and_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_audusd.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Ending Year at Channel and Fibonacci Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDMXN - Weekly

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Ending_Year_at_Channel_and_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_usdmxn.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Ending Year at Channel and Fibonacci Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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28 December 2012 15:49 GMT