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FOREX Trading: EUR/USD Setting Up for a ’Sell the News’ Trade

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
11 December 2012 17:48 GMT

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EURUSD focus is on 13030 (61.8% retracement). Given event risk tomorrow (Fed), I’d not be surprised to see an emotional market that spikes through that level and into 13065. Interim resistance is expected at 12975. Ultimately, the rally from Friday’s low is expected to prove corrective before lower prices are registered later in the month

USDJPY trade since 8283 may compose a triangle. Friday’s FX Technical Weekly provides a detailed look at what may be going on longer term. Near term, the 4th wave interpretation suggests a terminal thrust higher through 8283. Watch 8356 for a reversal. As mentioned last week, I don’t like a long idea based on the reversal following NFP. Reversals on news are often liquidity events that mark the end of a larger move.

The EURJPY rally has stalled at the 61.8% of the decline from 10795. This level is defended by the 11/25 high and 12/5 low. Given the importance of the level, I’m exiting longs from yesterday. The near term picture is constructive above 10646 but the ‘easy’ part of this trade is over.

EURUSD – Daily Bars

FOREX_Trading_EURUSD_Setting_Up_for_a_Sell_the_News_Trade_body_eurusd.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/USD Setting Up for a 'Sell the News' Trade

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – Daily Bars

FOREX_Trading_EURUSD_Setting_Up_for_a_Sell_the_News_Trade_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/USD Setting Up for a 'Sell the News' Trade

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURJPY – 240 Minute Bars

FOREX_Trading_EURUSD_Setting_Up_for_a_Sell_the_News_Trade_body_eurjpy.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/USD Setting Up for a 'Sell the News' Trade

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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11 December 2012 17:48 GMT