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FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Break Reaches 82.50 Confluence

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
21 November 2012 15:19 GMT

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

I wrote yesterday morning that “Yen crosses remain at ‘high risk’ levels that may produce reversals. As a native of Missouri (‘Show-Me’ state), market activity needs to show me something before I can act. Trigger levels are identified in USDJPY and AUDJPY.” Those trigger levels were never reached and a USDJPY bullish idea was put forth last night. Unfortunately, the trigger for the breakout never registered.

Trading breakouts is especially difficult because it feels as though one is buying the top or selling the bottom. The only way I’ve been able to tackle this psychological impediment is by trading against an objectively defined level. Against means that your stop is on the other side of that level and objective levels are opening range levels (early month, early week, and early session price extremes). Regarding the USDJPY, the Monday low of 8108 was the objective level to trade against (stop below) once the Monday high was broken. Price has now reached the next cluster of technical resistance surrounding 8250 and a reaction here would present the next opportunity to align with the move for a test of 8345 and potentially a break of the March high at 8417. 8215 is now estimated support and the level to trade against is moved up to 8164. Always ask yourself if you can handle the risk…another way to put this…It’s better to wish you were in a trade than wish you were out of a trade.

USD/JPY – Daily Candles

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Break_Reaches_82.50_Technical_Confluence_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Break Reaches 82.50 Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USD/JPY – 60 Minute Bars

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Break_Reaches_82.50_Technical_Confluence_body_usdjpy_1.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Break Reaches 82.50 Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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21 November 2012 15:19 GMT