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The EURUSD is nearly 100 pips off of the lows registered last night. Action remains constructive with price holding the monthly calculate pivot and more importantly the October low. Many have pointed out to me this morning that the decline from 13071 is in 5 waves. It is but it could complete a truncated C wave within an A-B-C correction. This example highlights the subjectivity that plagues most traders attempting to apply EW. EW is a useful tool, not omnipotent.
Simple observation of what has and has NOT happened goes a long way in deciphering the market’s message. The EURUSD has held the October 1 low (first day of month is the most probable day for a price extreme to occur for the entire month). The inability to break the October low on the back of the Spanish downgrade indicates resilience. The momentum profile remains bullish with daily RSI holding 50 (bullish RSI reversal signal as well). I could go on but you get the point…the weight of evidence in the near term (1-2 weeks) is bullish.
Other pairs on my watch list are AUDCHF, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURAUD, EURCAD, and AUDNZD.
-AUDCHF-looking to turn bullish at 9510/22 against 10/8 low
-EURAUD-looking to turn bearish above 12700
-EURCAD-looking to turn bearish above 12700
-NZDUSD-will 8238 hold as resistance? If not then resistance comes in at 8275 (currently short)
-AUDUSD-resistance is 10330
-EURNZD-resistance is 15865 (currently long)
-AUDNZD-resistance is 12577 (now) and support is 12500
‘Looking to turn bearish/bullish’ means that I’m watching pairs at the mentioned levels (if reached) for specific setups to define entries
EURUSD – Daily Candles
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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