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US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
19 March 2012 12:39 GMT

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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Recent divergence with the USDCHF is typical of turns (USDCHF traded above the February high while EURUSD held the February low). 13140 support held overnight and bulls are favored against 13045. 13290, which intersects with former trendline support next week, is interim resistance.

US_Dollar_to_Remain_Pressured_into_Month_End__body_eurusd.png, US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Bulls are favored against 15690. Structurally, the decline from the 2/8 high may be a completed flat. If that count is correct, then a rally towards 16300 is in its early stages. 16298 is where the rally from the January low would consist of 2 equal legs and intersects channel resistance in early April. Near term, the GBPUSD may consolidate in a small 4th wave. Support is 15820/55.

US_Dollar_to_Remain_Pressured_into_Month_End__body_gbpusd.png, US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – If the interpretation of wave structure is correct, then the AUDUSD is headed for a break above 10856 in the coming weeks. An objective is ABOVE the record free floating high of 11080 at 1.1160, which is the 61.8% extension of waves 1 through 3 (from the end of wave 4). The objective intersects with the Elliott channel in mid April. Interim resistance is 10670 and 10715. Support is 10560 and bulls are favored against 10500.

US_Dollar_to_Remain_Pressured_into_Month_End__body_audusd.png, US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – The combination of support from the Elliott channel / 38.2% retracement of the rally from 7460 and daily key reversal (today) portend a bullish resolution in the coming weeks. Bulls are favored against 8175. 8320 is interim resistance this week.

US_Dollar_to_Remain_Pressured_into_Month_End__body_nzdusd.png, US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY –Focus for the month remains 8550, which is defined by the 2011 high and confluence of Fibonacci extensions (100% extension of 7602-8162 / 8001 and 261.8% extension of 8001-8187 / 8058). The best strategy is to continue moving up the stop, which should now be under this week’s low at 8195 (for medium term players). Early week support is 8265/85 and bulls remains favored above the mentioned 8195. A drop below is required in order to reassess. In summary, look higher towards 8550 before a larger corrective decline takes place.

US_Dollar_to_Remain_Pressured_into_Month_End__body_usdjpy.png, US Dollar to Remain Pressured into Month End

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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19 March 2012 12:39 GMT