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Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
28 February 2012 14:12 GMT

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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Yesterday’s drop has nearly been retraced and there is no change to the call for “an extension of the rally towards Fibonacci objectives of 13584 (100% extension of 12623-13234 rally) and 13627 (61.8% retracement of decline from the 10/27/11 high). The former level intersects short and long term channels on Thursday. A rally to the mentioned level(s) will probably complete a corrective advance from the January low. In other words, I expect to flip to short in early March. Support today is 13420.

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_eurusd.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – A B wave low within an A-B-C advance from the January low is probably in place. Objectives are the 61.8% extension of the 15233-15928 rally (wave A) at 16074, the October 2011 high and 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high at 16167 and 100% extension at 16344. Look higher into month end.

AUDUSD – A 4th wave decline is probably complete at this week’s low and focus is on the 2011 high at 11080, and typical Fibonacci relationships; Wave 5 = 1 at 11153 and wave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1-3 at 11236. These levels intersect the EW channel on March 7th and March 15th. Risk on longs can be moved to yesterday’s low (10650). Support today is 10720. A short term objective above 10844 is the 161.8% extension of the 10597-10754 rally, at 10905.

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_audusd.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD has traded in a corrective manner for most of February. Specifically, the pattern is probably a 4th wave and the upside is favored in wave 5. If this assessment is correct, then expect the rally to accelerate in the next few days. A short term objective above 8428 is the 161.8% extension of the 8263-8396 rally, at 8537 (the 8/31/11 high is at 8371). With the AUDNZD bouncing from support, I am more bullish the AUDUSD than the NZDUSD at these levels.

USDJPY – A 5 wave advance from the 2/1 low is most likely complete in the USDJPY at Sunday evening’s high (8166). Expect weakness on balance over the next 1 to 2 weeks in order to complete a corrective 3 wave decline from 8166. Expect support at 7935/50 (2/20 low and 38.2% retracement of the 5 wave rally). A deeper decline could reach 7820/30 (61.8% retracement and breakout level).

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_usdjpy.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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28 February 2012 14:12 GMT