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US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
18 September 2013 15:05 GMT

-USDJPY breakout pending?

-USDMXN and USDZAR sitting on big support levels

USDJPY

Daily

US_Dollar_Trade_Setups_before_the_Fed__body_usdjpy.png, US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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The USDJPY trended higher until May. Since the 5/22 top, a triangle may have unfolded and may be complete after the 9/2 break above the May-July trendline. It’s possible that the breakout fails but operate on what has happened…to this point, that is a breakout.

It’s worth noting that the 21 day (1 month) and 126 day (6 month) averages are aligned in a bullish manner again. The proximity of the averages to each other and price indicate a compressed range that typifies conditions prior to a breakout.

USDJPY

8Hour

US_Dollar_Trade_Setups_before_the_Fed__body_usdjpy_1.png, US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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I am long USDJPY against the month to date low (98.20). Options volatility implies roughly a 1.4% move from current price. 1.4% on each side of 99 = 97.63 and 100.39. A trendline confluence lines up with the 8/30 low at 97.90 so I’ll look for support at 97.60/90 is taken out longs.

100.39 is just shy of last week’s high of 100.60. If the reaction is positive, then resist the temptation to chase into the top of the range. Rather, take some off of the table. FX Technical Weekly expands on the Yen.

USDMXN

Daily

US_Dollar_Trade_Setups_before_the_Fed__body_usdmxn.png, US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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USDMXN is really darn close to trendline support and has already responded to the 7/31 high as support. Yesterday’s inside day at support is a setup that I look for too.

I’m looking higher towards 13.15 but am not yet positioned. A push into 13.04/05 and pullback would probably present a long opportunity. Keep abreast of the situation via Twitter @JamieSaettele.

USDZAR

Daily

US_Dollar_Trade_Setups_before_the_Fed__body_usdzar.png, US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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USDZAR met a head and shoulders target on Monday as well as a long term trendline (former resistance line turned support in July-see next chart). The inside day at support setup is evident.

I’m looking higher towards 10.15 but am not yet positioned. A push into 9.90 and subsequent pullback would probably present a long opportunity. A new low could also test the 126 day (6 month) average, which has been support for over a year. Keep abreast of the situation via Twitter @JamieSaettele.

USDZAR

Daily

US_Dollar_Trade_Setups_before_the_Fed__body_usdzar_1.png, US Dollar Trade Setups before the Fed

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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18 September 2013 15:05 GMT