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Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
28 March 2013 19:50 GMT

Yen crosses are trending sideways. Currently at support, short term (next week) opportunities are on the long side. Tests of recent highs aren’t out of the question, but much more than is probably asking too much.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Hold_Near_Term_Support_AUDJPY_at_MAJOR_Market_Level_body_eurjpy.png, Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: The major trend is up and minor trend is sideways/down. Understand that additional sideways/down prices are likely until late stage bulls are cleared out. Major support is estimated at 116.00-117.00 (117.00/25). 115.95 is the 1/2 high, and 117.00/25 is marked by the 1/23 low and the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the November low. Near term, the EURJPY is holding important support defined by the 2/25 large range close (119.91).

FOREX Trading Strategy: It’s possible that the larger bull trend begins from here instead of 116.00-117.00 so looking to go long next week (need to see a hold of today’s low first) but would expect resistance at 123.60-124.50.

South African Rand / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Yen_Crosses_Hold_Near_Term_Support_AUDJPY_at_MAJOR_Market_Level_body_zarjpy.png, Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: ZARJPY has corrected into late January levels. Bigger picture, the clean 5 wave advance from the October 2012 low argues for a major multiyear bull market. Calling the end of a correction is always difficult but near term upside is favored towards the top of the channel with price holding Monday’s low for the week. Minor resistance is estimated at 10.350.

FOREX Trading Strategy: It’s possible that the larger bull trend begins from here instead of major support at 9.888 so looking to go long early next week but would expect resistance at 10.4205-4810.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Yen_Crosses_Hold_Near_Term_Support_AUDJPY_at_MAJOR_Market_Level_body_audjpy.png, Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: One reason to be wary of the longer term trend in Yen crosses resuming from the current level is the AUDJPY. The March high 99.97 is in line with the 1997 high at 100.05 (see below chart). The level is reinforced by the channel that defines the advance from the 2008 low (channel is just above price). Near term, there is of course room for a bounce into 98.68 and perhaps consolidation before another high…just don’t get carried away with thoughts of another huge move (not yet at least)….not with the 1997 high, 4+ year channel and round 100 figure in the way.

FOREX Trading Strategy: This is the best Yen cross to short (in my opinion). I’ll be looking for short setups next week. In general, look for a failed rally above 99.00. Keep an eye on the economic calendar; RBA is Monday.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly

Yen_Crosses_Hold_Near_Term_Support_AUDJPY_at_MAJOR_Market_Level_body_audjpy_1.png, Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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28 March 2013 19:50 GMT