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AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
10 May 2012 18:39 GMT

PRICE TREND / RANGE TABLE

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_Picture_6.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

-PriceRank is the percentile rank of the last daily close compared most recent 60 and 20 daily closes (100=highest close and 0 = lowest close)

-Range is the difference in pips of highest high – lowest low over X days (60, 20) – for example, a range of 500 under the 20 days column means that the highest 20 day high – the lowest 20 day low = 500 pips

-Rank is the percentile rank of the range over X days (60, 20) – for example, a rank of 100 under the 20 day column means that the range over the last 20 days is the highest it has been in 20 days

-ATR% is the average range over the last 20 days expressed as a %. The rank indicates whether the average range is high or low relative to the last 20 days.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_audnzd.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A multi-year topping pattern is evident on weekly charts. This rally from the April low offers an opportunity to align with the larger bear trend against 13061. Resistance is defined by the current level (upward sloping trendline) and extends to trendline resistance (extends off of December and March highs) / former highs at 12888 and 12933. Daily RSI is at a level consistent with bear market tops.

New Zealand Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_nzdcad.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDCAD is supported from channel support and the 12/29/11 low (7837). Short term traders may wish to look higher towards 7935 but a better play for most is to fade a bounce against 8100. 7940/80 is resistance. Looking out a bit, weakness is likely to extend towards the November 2011 low at 7717.

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_audcad.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDCAD is leading the NZDCAD, having broken its 2012 low in March. Immediate focus is on the August 2011 low at 9915 but a bounce from the current level (November 2011 low) is likely. I favor shorts into 10160-10220 with a stop above 10300.

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_eurnzd.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Channel resistance is holding for now but a break exposes the 2012 high (1/2 high) at 16662. A move through would be considered significant not just because of the YTD high but also because of the break through the base channel. As focused on many times in these technical pages, a break of the base channel suggests that an impulse is underway. In this case, focus shifts higher to former support at 17069 and the 161.8% extension at 17121. 16360 is support and the trend is bullish against 16150.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUDNZD_Top_Expected_Within_Larger_Bear_Trend_body_euraud.png, AUDNZD Top Expected Within Larger Bear Trend

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Holding trendline support, the EURAUD is constructive against 12645. Reward/risk is favorable towards a former pivot at 13226. Channel resistance crosses this level next week (on the 15th to be exact). Any setbacks should be bought against 12645. Price is bouncing from support now (12775).

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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10 May 2012 18:39 GMT