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AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
03 May 2012 21:52 GMT

PRICE TREND / RANGE TABLE

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_Picture_6.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

-PriceRank is the percentile rank of the last daily close compared most recent 60 and 20 daily closes (100=highest close and 0 = lowest close)

-Range is the difference in pips of highest high – lowest low over X days (60, 20) – for example, a range of 500 under the 20 days column means that the highest 20 day high – the lowest 20 day low = 500 pips

-Rank is the percentile rank of the range over X days (60, 20) – for example, a rank of 100 under the 20 day column means that the range over the last 20 days is the highest it has been in 20 days

-ATR% is the average range over the last 20 days expressed as a %. The rank indicates whether the average range is high or low relative to the last 20 days.

IN GENERAL…

The AUDNZD is testing resistance in what must still be considered a longer term downtrend…NZDCAD and AUDCAD are at 2012 lows but testing support. A reaction would present an opportunity to get short against May highs. Early month lows in EURAUD and EURNZD also offer bullish breakout opportunities.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_audnzd.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A multi-year topping pattern is evident on weekly charts. This 300+ pips rally from the April low offers an opportunity to align with the larger bear trend against 13061. The top needs to form in the 2-3 days for confidence to remain high in the downside (reason being that a top should form early in the month in a downtrend). Resistance is defined by the current level (September 2011 high and upward sloping trendline) and extends to trendline resistance (extends off of December and March highs) / former highs at 12888 and 12933. Watch the 3rd standard deviation band (20 days), which pinpointed the December and March highs. Daily RSI is also at resistance.

New Zealand Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_nzdcad.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDCAD slipped below the 1/2/2012 low today. This is significant in that action for 2012 composes an intrayear reversal. The level is defended by the 100% extension of the decline from February and channel support. Don’t chase at these levels. A better play is to fade a likely bounce against 8100. 7940/80 is resistance. In sharply trending markets, the 5 day average is useful as a trigger. 7840 and 7720 are bearish objectives.

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_audcad.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDCAD is leading the NZDCAD, having broken its 2012 low in March. Immediate focus is on the August 2011 low at 9915 but a bounce from the current level (November 2011 low) is likely. I favor shorts into 10200/30 resistance with a stop above 10300.

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_eurnzd.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Immediate focus is on resistance above 16600, which is defined by the 100% extensions of the rallies from the February low and April low. Channel resistance is at 16565 and increases about 7 pips per day. I favor longs into support at 16360 with a stop under 16150.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

AUD_and_NZD_Breakout_Opportunities_on_Pullbacks_body_euraud.png, AUD and NZD Breakout Opportunities on Pullbacks

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Currently holding trendline support, the EURAUD is constructive against 12570. Reward/risk is favorable on dips against that level towards former pivots at 12962 and 13226. Keep an eye on the channel, which crosses the latter level in the middle of May (15th to be exact). Support is 12770 and 12700.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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03 May 2012 21:52 GMT