Topping Process as Yen Crosses Near Significant Levels

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY is right back near the high following last week’s key reversal. As focused on yesterday during the market timing webinar, fading the trend into month end is usually not a great idea. The market is setting up for a short next week at the start of a new month though. Resistance extends from the last week’s high (which is right at the October intervention high) and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 12331 (reinforced by long term trendline resistance this week and next week). Tuesday’s low is support at 11030.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY is right back near the high following last week’s key reversal. As focused on yesterday during the market timing webinar, fading the trend into month end is usually not a great idea. The market is setting up for a short next week at the start of a new month though. Resistance extends from a Fibonacci extension in the mid 13400s to the 5/30/11 high at 13511. Tuesday’s low is support at 13200.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY is pressing against long term trendline resistance and in general a zone that has acted as support and resistance for nearly 5 years (8800-9000 level). A strong reaction is likely near 9000 even if the larger trend is up. Near term pattern remains constructive above Monday’s low of 8615 and near term support is 8670. A short is more likely next week at the beginning of April.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY is testing long term trendline resistance and is approaching the July 2011 high at 8505. A strong reaction is likely near this level even if the larger trend is up. Near term pattern remains constructive above Monday’s low of 8249 and near term support is 8300/30. A short is more likely next week at the beginning of April.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDJPY is pressing against a zone that has acted as support and resistance for nearly 7 years (6875-6975 level). A strong reaction is likely near 7000 even if the larger trend is up. Near term pattern remains constructive above Monday’s low of 6725 and near term support is 6775-6800. A short is more likely next week at the beginning of April.

Bottom line (next 5 days): topping

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.