Yen Patterns are Clear and Offer Opportunities

Euro / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Wednesday that “weakness may be overextended near term and bounces should encounter resistance at 10180.” The high today is 10179 and the bounce is probably part of a 4th wave correction. Additional strength into 10200 is possible but I am looking for a drop to a new low and test of 10075 before a more substantial rally. Chart levels on a drop below 10075 are the June 2001 low at 9988 and the 2000 low at 8894.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minutes Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A head and shoulders continuation pattern may be unfolding from the September low. The pattern is bearish (if confirmed) and a drop below 11934 would shift focus to the September low at 11683. The December high at 12265 is key to a near term bearish interpretation. 12115 continues to hold as resistance but a break above would shift focus to 12160/ 80. It’s worth noting that the last 3 days are dojis. The 3 day range is 12028 to 12114. These levels can serve as breakout points (stop on the other side).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY is holding under the 20 day average and focus remains lower towards the trendline that extends off of the October and November lows but the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 7477 has thwarted bears thus far. Trading above 7803 would trigger a change in bias and shift focus to 7890 and 8050.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY decline is the most mature of the Yen crosses, as a 3 wave decline from 7735 may be nearing completion (notice that wave c is in 5 waves…unlike the AUDJPY). Expect support early next week from the October-November trendline, and short term downward sloping channel.

Euro / Australian Dollar

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

A EURAUD triangle has been unfolding since January. Triangles consist of 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e) and sometimes one of the waves within a triangle is a triangle itself. That may be the case here with wave c. If it is, then the decline from 13809 is wave d and a final leg up into 13385-13485 (50%-61.8% retracement, 200 day average) will complete the triangle. Above 13809 would negate the pattern as described here.

Euro / British Pound

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURGBP focus remains lower into the January low at 8284. Near term, a triangle may be unfolding from 8372 as a small 4th wave (resistance above 8424 is 8440). A drop into a new low would likely be followed by additional consolidation and yet another leg lower as per the graphic above.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURCAD found support ahead of its July and September lows and carved out a key reversal today. Divergence with momentum at recent lows favors a turn higher as well. Near term resistance is 13610 and 13711 (20 day average is at 13690).

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.