Euro / Japanese Yen
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“The 3 wave rally from 10075 (corrective) leaves the EURJPY vulnerable to a fresh low (under 10076). 10470 is now resistance and the downside is favored as long as price is below 10648 (wave 1 low).” Little has changed regarding the EURJPY (or any other Yen cross) as price continues to decline. The decline has been steady and one can make the case that this latest drop composes a 5th wave. I do not advocate going long as the larger trend is down (as per the 3 wave rally from 10075) but strength into 10430/70 would present an opportunity to sell a rally against 10648.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“The 3 wave rally from near 11700 (corrective) leaves the GBPJPY vulnerable to a fresh low (under 11682). 12175 is now resistance and the downside is favored as long as price is below 12390 (wave 1 low).” The decline has been steady and one can make the case that this latest drop composes a 5th wave. I do not advocate going long as the larger trend is down (as per the 3 wave rally) but strength into 12175 or even 12300 would present an opportunity to sell a rally against 12390.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Like the other Yen pairs, the rally from 7205 is in 3 waves and is likely to be entirely retraced. The bearish bias is valid below 7962 (wave 1 low). The decline may be a bit stretched at this point and strength into 7660 and 7750 would offer an opportunity to short against 7963.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The CADJPY rally from 7214 consists of 3 waves, making it a corrective move that should be retraced. As is the case with other Yen crosses, a bounce would present a short opportunity but longs are not advised given the large downside risk. Resistance comes in at 7450, 7500, and 7560.
Euro / British Pound
300 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The break of a year and a half trendline in the EURGBP shifts focus to a developing channel and former long term resistance trendline. These lines intersect in early 2012 near the 2011 low of 8285. The bounce this week has stalled at the confluence of the 13 and 52 week averages and October breakdown level, offering a better level to play the bearish trendline break.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
DailyBars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened. Trading since the middle of September has been confined (for the most part) to 13800 and 14100. Currently rebounding from the bottom of the range (after a false break nonetheless), I like the EURCAD higher towards 14175.” Price has turned up and the pullback from the short term resistance line presents an opportunity to buy the dip in anticipation of a break through 14175.
Euro / Australian Dollar
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
My latest comments were that “the EURAUD has reached the top of the channel and a close above would signal a bullish breakout in price and increased risk aversion in general.” The breakout on Monday shifts focus towards the August-October trendline near 13900. Daily RSI is on the verge of taking out 70, which can signal the start of a larger trend. 13650 and the former channel (topside) now become support.
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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