Yen Crosses in Precarious Positions

Euro / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“Yen intervention led to the EURJPY spiking through the resistance line that extends off of the April and July highs. The advance reversed just shy of the late August highs.” The EURJPY has retraced its entire intervention advance and broken 10470. The 3 wave rally from 10076 (corrective) leaves the EURJPY vulnerable to a fresh low (under 10076). 10470 is now resistance and the downside is favored as long as price is below 10648 (wave 1 low).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Yen intervention led to the GBPJPY breaking above its trendline that extends off of the April and August highs. That break was short lived. Like the EURJPY, the GBPJPY rally is in 3 waves and the implications are for at least a test of the low (11683). 12230 is now resistance and the downside is favored as long as price is below 12389 (wave 1 low).

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has reached 7650/80, an area defined by former trendline resistance, a shorter term bearish channel and the August low. The confluence of levels suggests that this is probably strong support. 7800/50 is short term resistance. Like the other Yen pairs, the rally from 7205 is in 3 waves and is likely to be entirely retraced. The bearish bias is valid below 7962 (wave 1 low).

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY rally from 7214 consists of 3 waves, making it a corrective move that should be retraced. Price is nearing a former pivot at 7436 – a bounce should encounter resistance from 7560 (former support) and the downside is favored against 7636 (wave 1 low).

Euro / British Pound

300 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The break of a year and a half trendline in the EURGBP shifts focus to a developing channel and former long term resistance trendline. These lines intersect in early 2012 near the 2011 low of 8285. If consolidation resumes above 8600, the expect resistance from 8660.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Since the January-June rally from 12771 to 14381, the EURCAD range has tightened. Trading since the middle of September has been confined (for the most part) to 13800 and 14100. Currently rebounding from the bottom of the range (after a false break nonetheless), I like the EURCAD higher towards 14175.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

My latest comments were that “the EURAUD range has tightened since the start of 2011. If the range continues to tighten, then price will probably be near the mid 13600s in a few weeks. Price has overcome its 20 day average which increases confidence in a near term bullish outlook. Look higher towards the top of the short term channel (intersects with former pivots at 13540 and 13630 over the next week).” Price has reached the top of the channel and a close above would signal a bullish breakout in price and increased risk aversion in general.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.