Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

Euro / British Pound

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Much like the EURUSD, the EURGBP has rallied from its May low and looks poised to break through the pivot high at 8844. A push above may complete a flat correction from the 5/12 low. An objective is the 161.8% extension of the rally from the 5/12 low – at 8888. Former resistance at 8750 is now support.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

240 MinuteBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The latest advance may compose the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top in the EURCAD. A line parallel to that of the neckline has been reached and the structure of the rally from the b wave low appears complete (in 5 waves). I favor the downside from here. Trading above 14100 would require a reassessment of the pattern (if the larger trend is down then price should remain below the parallel line).

Euro / Australian Dollar

240 MinuteBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The favored count treats weakness from 14343 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. This count is particularly bearish and as the next drop would likely extend below 12500. Resistance has been reached from former support and the 38.2% retracement at 13500 but additional strength cannot be ruled out. 13580 and 13660 should serve as resistance in the event of additional strength.

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY decline from 12332 is in 3 waves (to this point) but so too is the rally from 11350 (an x wave?). Bullish potential exists as long as price is above 11446. A drop below there would give way to a test of 11350 (5/16 low). A break below the 5/16 low would shift focus to 11200 and 11125.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The decline in the GBPJPY from 14001 unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive) therefore expectations are for a corrective rally before additional weakness below 13027.” After reaching 13500, price has rolled over in what may be the next leg lower. Coming under 13027 would expose the 61.8% extension at 12910 and 100% extension at 12537. Also watch the parallel channel line.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY declined from 8951 in 3 waves in equal legs. A 3 wave decline is corrective but the bounce from 8228 has nearly been entirely retraced. A drop below would suggest that a larger complex correction is underway towards 8000/50.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY decline from 9002 is in 3 waves (to this point of course) but a triangle appears to have unfolded from the May low. The implications are for a drop below 8431 before formation of a more important low. The 50% and 61.8% retracements at 8230 and 8048 are support levels.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.