Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-20

Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)

Euro / British Pound

60 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The larger EURGBP trend is down towards 7600-7700 (October 2008 low and Fibonacci extension). The 3 wave rally from 8065 (3 waves are against the trend) confirms my bearish bias. The decline from 8367 may be a 3rd wave within an impulse lower from 8536. Favor the downside against 8367. Watch the channel for resistance and support.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The EURCAD is following the script…to review, “it is possible to count 5 waves up in the EURCAD from the June low. Waves a and b of an a-b-c correction are probably complete. Allow for a drop below 13260 in wave c. 12950 is support for wave c.” The drop below 13260 satisfies minimum expectations for wave c. Additional support is the 50% retracement at 13070 and the former 4th wave / 61.8% retracement at 12925/50.

Euro / Australian Dollar

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Since the May low, the EURAUD may be tracing out a triangle. A terminal thrust would result in a drop to a new low (beneath 13920) before a more important low is in place. An alternate count is bullish in which the EURAUD has traced out a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Resistance is 14610 and 14750.

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

“The rally from 10730 is left in 3 waves, which is corrective. Expectations are for the entire rally to be retraced. The larger trend is down but the specter of 5 waves down from 11475 suggests that a correction is due. In such an event, resistance is 11040.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The low ATR readings that I’ve focused on in recent weeks proved their worth. To review – “20 day GBPJPY ATR is at its lowest level since January. Since the top above 251 in July 2007, ATR readings this low have coincided with important tops. A low ATR signals low volatility, which signals complacency.” The rally from 12672 is in 3 waves (like the EURJPY), so the entire rally should be retraced. Currently testing a support line, we could see a test of 13490 before the next move lower. Under 13080 opens the door for an accelerated decline to 12670 (May low).

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The CADJPY has broken to a 2010 low and expectations are for further weakness towards the 100% extension of the 9452-8238 decline, which is at 7850. Price should remain below 8525. 8380 and 8420 are resistance levels.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Near term, the AUDJPY is working lower in either wave d of a triangle or a 3rd wave within the 5 wave bearish sequence from 8090. In both cases, weakness is favored until at least 7465. Look lower from here.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.