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US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Looks Vulnerable

By , Currency Strategist
27 August 2013 06:52 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar price action remains muted as prices linger at a familiar range top. SPX 500 positioning hints renewed selling pressure may be close at hand.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at 10760, the August 13 high, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Range support is at 10646, with a break below that targeting the bottom of a falling channel set from early July (now at 10575). A reversal above 10760 aims for the channel top at 10797.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Looks_Vulnerable_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 1669.80, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support is at 1652.10, the 38.2% Fib retracement, with a break below that eyeing the 50% mark at 1634.30. Alternatively, a reversal above 1669.80 targets the 1687.40-1691.80 area, marked by the May 22 high and the 38.2% expansion.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Looks_Vulnerable_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices overturned bearish reversal cues noted last week, pushing higher to take out resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (1400.72). The bulls now aim to challenge the top of a rising channel at 1430.85, followed by the 100% level at 1440.23. The 1400.72 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the channel bottom at 1381.40.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Looks_Vulnerable_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are tracing out a consolidation Triangle chart pattern, a setup typically indicative of consolidation preceding overall trend resumption (which favors the upside in this case). Resistance at the Triangle top is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 108.40, with a break above that targeting the 50% level at 110.32. Triangle support is now at 103.78. A reversal beneath that eyes a rising trend line at 100.58.

Forex_US_Dollar_Looking_for_Direction_SPX_500_Looks_Vulnerable_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Looking for Direction, SPX 500 Looks Vulnerable

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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27 August 2013 06:52 GMT