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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal

By , Currency Strategist
24 January 2013 14:34 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is staging an impressive recovery while S&P 500 positioning warns of a turn lower ahead, promising added support for the haven currency.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are rebounding toward resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-September (10154), a barrier reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 10170. A break above the latter barrier aims for the 100% level at 10248. Near-term trend line support is at 10081.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Rebounds_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1495.70, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is in the 1470.40-74.90 area marked by the September 14 2012 high and the 76.4% Fib. A reversal below that targets the 61.8% expansion at 1454.50. Alternatively, a break above 1495.70 aims for the 123.6% level at 1531.30.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Rebounds_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are turning lower resistance at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Trend line resistance-turned-support is in the 1650.88-55.40 area, with a break below that aiming for a falling channel bottom at 1608.39. Alternatively, a move above 1690.39 targets the channel top at 1706.92.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Rebounds_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Near-term support is now in the 94.61-94 area. A break below that targeting a formerly broken falling trend line at 92.28. Resistance is at 97.41, with a push above that aiming for 94.61.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Rebounds_as_SP_500_Chart_Warns_of_Reversal_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds as S&P 500 Chart Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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24 January 2013 14:34 GMT