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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Bounces as S&P 500 Chart Points to Reversal

By , Currency Strategist
20 December 2012 03:28 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar staged a recovery from support as the S&P 500 chart produced signs of coming bearish reversal, hinting the haven currency may continue higher.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices staged a mild recovery from neckline support established from late October (now at 9927) to retest trend line support-turned-resistance at 9956. A break above that aims for the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 9995. Alternatively, a drop below neckline support eyes the channel bottom at 9866.

orex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Bounces_as_SP_500_Chart_Points_to_Reversal_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Bounces as S&P 500 Chart Points to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick below falling trend line resistance set from the September 14 high (1445.50), hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial rising channel support at 1419.80, with a break below that targeting 1398.10. Alternatively, a reversal above the trend line aims for the channel top at 1452.00.

orex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Bounces_as_SP_500_Chart_Points_to_Reversal_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Bounces as S&P 500 Chart Points to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices plunged through supports at 1692.41 and 1677.84, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci expansions respectively. Sellers now aim to challenge the 76.4% level at 1659.90, with a push below that targeting the 100% mark at 1630.97. The 1677.84 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that aiming for 1692.41 anew.

orex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Bounces_as_SP_500_Chart_Points_to_Reversal_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Bounces as S&P 500 Chart Points to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices completed an Ascending Triangle chart pattern with a break above resistance at 89.19, exposing initial resistance at the December 3 high (90.31). Overall, the Triangle pattern implies a measured upside target at 94.04, which line up closely with a falling trend line capping prices since late-February. Alternatively, a drop back below 89.19 aims eyes support at 85.96.

orex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Bounces_as_SP_500_Chart_Points_to_Reversal_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Bounces as S&P 500 Chart Points to Reversal

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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20 December 2012 03:28 GMT