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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds Up at Support as S&P 500 Retreats

By , Currency Strategist
28 November 2012 03:57 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar held at critical trend-defining support as expected as the S&P 500 turned lower, buoying demand for the go-to safe haven currency.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9993 to challenge the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-September (now at 9968). A break below this boundary initially exposes the 38.2% level at 9945. Alternatively, a break back above 9993 aims for the November 16 high at 10071.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_Up_at_Support_as_SP_500_Retreats_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds Up at Support as S&P 500 Retreats

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices edged lower as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement (1408.50), a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from mid-October. Initial support remains at 1392.80, the 38.2% retracement, with a break below that aiming to challenge the 23.6% level at 1373.40. Alternatively, a push above 1408.50 exposes the 1424.90-30.90 area.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_Up_at_Support_as_SP_500_Retreats_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds Up at Support as S&P 500 Retreats

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices appear to have carved out a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders chart pattern confirmed with a close above neckline resistance at 1737.28, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The setup implies a measured upside target at 1802.06. The 1737.28 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break below that aiming for the 38.2% Fib at 1688.65.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_Up_at_Support_as_SP_500_Retreats_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds Up at Support as S&P 500 Retreats

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are consolidating below resistance at 89.48, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Initial rising trend line support is at 87.17, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 7 low at 84.04. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% level at 92.88.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Holds_Up_at_Support_as_SP_500_Retreats_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Holds Up at Support as S&P 500 Retreats

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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28 November 2012 03:57 GMT