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US Dollar on the Verge of Bullish Breakout, S&P 500 Loses 1400 Figure

By , Currency Strategist
04 May 2012 04:05 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is on the verge of a bullish breakout as prices test key resistance while the S&P 500 has failed to hold up above the 1400 figure.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing support in the 1389.30-1392.10 area marked by a horizontal barrier and the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. A break lower exposes the 50% Fib at 1381.30, the 50% Fib. Near-term resistance lines up at the 1400 figure.

US_Dollar_on_the_Verge_of_Bullish_Breakout_SP_500_Loses_1400_Figure_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar on the Verge of Bullish Breakout, S&P 500 Loses 1400 Figure

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices followed a Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from late February indentified yesterday with a sharp move lower. Sellers are now upward-slowing support established since mid-December, with a break lower exposing the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 101.60. Near-term resistance lines up at 104.13, the 23.6% Fib.

US_Dollar_on_the_Verge_of_Bullish_Breakout_SP_500_Loses_1400_Figure_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar on the Verge of Bullish Breakout, S&P 500 Loses 1400 Figure

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices followed a Spinning Top candle below trend line resistance capping gains since late March with a push below support at 1637.95, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now target the 38.2% Fib at 1611.77. The 1637.95 level has been recast as near-term resistance, followed by the trend line at 1663.54.

US_Dollar_on_the_Verge_of_Bullish_Breakout_SP_500_Loses_1400_Figure_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar on the Verge of Bullish Breakout, S&P 500 Loses 1400 Figure

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices followed a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern identified earlier this week above trend line support set from late July 2011 with a push higher. The bulls are now testing resistance at 9906, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from the April 5 swing high. A daily close above here exposes a longer-term trend line at 9978. Near-term support is at 9879 followed by the rising trend line at 9823.

US_Dollar_on_the_Verge_of_Bullish_Breakout_SP_500_Loses_1400_Figure_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar on the Verge of Bullish Breakout, S&P 500 Loses 1400 Figure

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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04 May 2012 04:05 GMT