US Dollar and S&P 500 Testing Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&P 500 are positioned ahead of trend-defining technical barriers, with prices’ behavior from here to set the tone for the days ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices are once again testing the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation being carved out since November, with negative RSI divergence warning that a move lower may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 1408.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion level. Wedge top resistance is now at 1422.50, with a break above that initially exposing the 50% Fib at 1429.50.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick above support at 104.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial falling trend line resistance lines up at 108.04, with a break upward initially exposing the March 19 swing high at 108.66.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices broke through resistance at 1666.37 to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1691.06. A break above this boundary exposes the February 6 close at 1719.76 followed by the 38.2% Fib at 1730.38. The 1666.37 level has been recast as near-term support.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices are retesting resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line set from the December 14 swing high, a barrier reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 9885. Initial resistance lines up at 9935, the 38.2% Fib.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

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