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US Dollar May Retreat Before Larger Up Trend Resumes

By , Currency Strategist
30 December 2011 03:50 GMT

THE TAKEAWAYUS Dollar technical positioning warns that the currency may see a period of short-term weakness before the larger bullish trend resumes anew.

S&P 500 – Prices completed a bearish Evening Doji Star candlestick below resistance at 1273.40, pointing to a double top in progress. A short-term bounce has materialized from support at 1251.40, the 14.6% Fibonacci extension level, but the bearish signal remains in force absent a daily close above the pattern’s high (1269.60). A break through immediate support exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1238.20.

US_Dollar_May_Retreat_Before_Larger_Down_Trend_Resumes_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Retreat Before Larger Up Trend Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above resistance-turned-support at thetop of a falling channel set from mid-November, hinting a pull-up is ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 101.80. The channel bottom, now at 98.93, remains as near-term support.

US_Dollar_May_Retreat_Before_Larger_Down_Trend_Resumes_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Retreat Before Larger Up Trend Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are showing a Hammer candlestick above support at 1532.45, the September 26 wick low, pointing to a corrective bounce ahead after gold took out major multi-year trend line support yesterday. Trend line resistance lines up at 1569.85. Renewed selling through support initially exposes 1477.99, the July 1 low.

US_Dollar_May_Retreat_Before_Larger_Down_Trend_Resumes_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Retreat Before Larger Up Trend Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a bearish Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10027, the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level, hinting a pullback is ahead. Initial support lines is marked by rising trend line set from early November at 9947 and reinforced by the 23.6% extension at 9934. A break below the latter barrier exposes 9823. Alternatively, renewed upward momentum through resistance aims for the year-to-date closing high at 10081.

US_Dollar_May_Retreat_Before_Larger_Down_Trend_Resumes_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Retreat Before Larger Up Trend Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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30 December 2011 03:50 GMT