- Canadian CPI Accelerates More Than Expected, USDCAD Plunges Fri, 19 Mar 2010 12:29 GMT
- Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.18.10 Thu, 18 Mar 2010 10:37 GMT
- Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.19.10 Fri, 19 Mar 2010 05:01 GMT
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- Mar, 05 Euro Sentiment Turns from Bearish Extreme
- Feb, 19 Currencies Turn from Sentiment Extremes
- Feb, 12 COT Data Indicates Extreme Sentiment Across the Board
- Feb, 03 Commodity Currency Sentiment Turns from Bullish Extreme
- Jan, 22 Sell off in ‘Risk’ Just Beginning
- Jan, 15 Yen Positioning Warns of Important Turn
- Jan, 11 Commitments of Traders
- Dec, 29 COT Data Suggests Sideways Trading
- Dec, 18 Speculative Positions are Short Euros
- Dec, 11 Speculators Pile on US Dollar Long Positions
- Nov, 30 COT Data Mostly Unchanged
- Nov, 16 Speculative USD Short Positions Remain High
- Nov, 06 USD Short Covering is Dollar Bullish
- Oct, 30 Australian Dollar Speculative Longs Remain Extreme
- Oct, 23 Speculative Canadian Dollar Longs Indicate Extreme
- Oct, 16 Swiss Franc Long Positions Highest Since December 2004 (COT)
- Sep, 30 Large Speculators are Too Short US Dollars
The Yen’s sentiment reading is at 100 (as it was last week). Reading of 100 that are preceeded by an uptrend are bearish.
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (13). A reading close to 0 is bearish if the currency in question has reversed from a uptrend and is bullish if the currency has been declining for a significant amount of time. A reading close to 100 is bullish if the currency in question has reversed from a downtrend and is bearish if the currency has been rallying for a significant amount of time.
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
US Dollar
Euro
No commentary at this time for the Euro.
British Pound
Sentiment registered a reading of 100 several weeks ago (11/21 week). The pair has been range bound since June but weakness that follows a reading of 100 triggers a bearish bias.
Australian Dollar
No commentary at this time for the Australian dollar.
New Zealand Dollar
Kiwi’s sentiment reading of 0 is bearish. Since topping in October, the index has been at 0 several times. Readings of 0 that occur along with a reversal from an uptrend are bearish.
Japanese Yen
The Yen’s sentiment reading is at 100 (as it was last week). Reading of 100 that are preceeded by an uptrend are bearish. Note-this is a chart of the Yen futures contract, not the USDJPY (the inverse of this chart would look similar to the USDJPY).
Canadian Dollar
No commentary at this time for the Canadian dollar.
Swiss Franc
The Canadian Dollar’s sentiment reading is at 100. Reading of 100 that are preceeded by an uptrend are bearish.
Note-this is a chart of the CAD futures contract, not the USDCAD (the inverse of this chart would look similar to the USDCAD).
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.
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