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US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Falls But Shows Labor Market Strength

By Kevin Jin
03 July 2013 14:28 GMT

THE TAKEAWAY: USD ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUN) > 52.2 versus 54.0 expected, from 53.7 > USDCAD BEARISH

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (JUN) comes in at 52.2, below the Bloomberg News survey expected 54.0, and below May’s 53.7 figure. This is the third below expectations ISM Non-manufacturing print in the last four months, which slightly hints at a slowing US services sector. On the other hand, recall that on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing Index marginally beat Bloomberg News survey expectations (50.9 actual; 50.5 expected).

While the ISM data today comes in lower than expected, the reading is not entirely bad. The employment component of the index shows a moderate expansion (54.7 June; 50.1 May). A review of other recent US employment data paints a mixed picture for Friday’s important Non-farm Payrolls reading. On Monday, the employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index contracted to 48.7 (June), from 50.1 (May). Today, labor data is optimistic: ADP Employment Change (June): +188K actual; +160K Bloomberg News survey expected; +134K prior (revised down from +135K). Initial Jobless Claims (June 29) also indicate labor market decency: +343K actual; +345 Bloomberg News survey expected; +348K prior (revised up from +346K).

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: July 3, 2013

US_ISM_Non-Manufacturing_Index_Falls_But_Shows_Labor_Market_Strength_body_Picture_1.png, US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Falls But Shows Labor Market Strength

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The USDCAD is down -18 pips (-0.17%) to $1.0533 at the time of writing. The pair is declining from the 1.0550 level where it was trading prior to the ISM data release at 14:00 GMT (10:00 EDT on chart above). The USDCAD has held 1.0525 support level three times recently on the M15 chart, and it will be interesting to see if this level holds again, as the pair trades down to down to that level.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

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03 July 2013 14:28 GMT