|
Central Bank |
Current Interest Rate |
Next Policy Decision Expectation |
Market Conviction* |
1-yr Exp** |
|
Federal Reserve |
0.00% - 0.25% |
No change on 03/15 ↔ |
High |
+37bps |
|
European Central Bank |
1.00% |
No change on 03/03 ↔ |
High |
+87bps |
|
Bank of England |
0.50% |
No change on 03/10 ↔ |
High |
+85bps |
|
Swiss National Bank |
0.25% |
No change on 03/17 ↔ |
High |
+28bps |
|
Reserve Bank of Australia |
4.75% |
No change on 03/01 ↔ |
High |
+38bps |
|
Bank of Canada |
1.00% |
No change on 03/01 ↔ |
High |
+83bps |
|
Reserve Bank of New Zealand |
3.00% |
No change on 03/09 ↔ |
High |
+53bps |
|
Bank of Japan |
0.10% |
No change on 02/15 ↔ |
High |
+2bps |
*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.
**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.
Daily Update: Interest rate expectations were mixed. The BOE left monetary policy unchanged, but interest rate expectations rose anyway, reaching a 13-month high. Traders obviously believe that rate hikes will start soon.
RBA interest rate expectations ticked slightly lower after yesterday’s neutral employment data. ECB expectations bounced a bit and are just shy of a 12-month high.
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