Intraday Trading 07.19

The USD/JPY continued to trade within a descending channel which has remained intact since earlier last week. Over the next twenty four hours, we will look for price action to break above the upper trend line, which may in turn validate potential U.S. dollar bullish price action. Both daily studies in oversold levels and our user defined Parabolic SAR have signaled for additional gains. All in all, a break above 87.00 may justify a potential target towards 87.63.

After the massive rally last week, the pair looks poised for a modest correction over the next 24 hours. As price action remains supported by the 20-day SMA, we do not rule out a test towards 1.5130 before the GBP/USD continues its northern journey. At the same time, our user defined Parabolic SAR crossover signaled for losses in the pair at 1.40 and has not indicated for a stop and reverse as of late. On the contrary, our speculative sentiment index indicates for additional gains. Thus, it is possible that the pair may test the upper trend line before the pair scales back.

Retail positioning relates to our speculative sentiment index which illustrates where traders are at in the market. The larger the retail positioning circle is under the chart, the more likely it is that longs exceed shorts or vice versa. We will look to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical developments to dictate price action over the next 24 hours.

Every day at 16:00 GMT, we analyze potential 24 hour trade set ups.  If the trade is indeed triggered and price action moves in our favor, we will automatically place the stop at breakeven to control any unforeseen losses. The trade becomes no longer valid if it is not triggered in 16:00 GMT the next day.


Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research
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Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical's, Weekly Spotlight, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast