- U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increase in February, Spurring a Rise in USD/JPY Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:01 GMT
- Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.12.10 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 05:15 GMT
- New Zealand Retailing Outperforms on Fuel, Car Sales Fri, 12 Mar 2010 03:15 GMT
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- Mar, 12 U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increase in February, Spurring a Rise in USD/JPY
- Mar, 12 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.12.10
- Mar, 12 New Zealand Retailing Outperforms on Fuel, Car Sales
- Mar, 11 SNB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Reaffirms Commitment to Limit Franc Appreciation
- Mar, 11 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.11.10
- Mar, 11 Japan's GDP Report Shows Deflation Rate Doubled in Fourth Quarter
- Mar, 11 Australian Unemployment Rate Rises as Job Gains Disappoint
- Mar, 10 U.K. Manufacturing Tumbles for the First Time in Five Months
- Mar, 10 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.10.10
- Mar, 10 Australian Home Loans Drop Most in Nearly a Decade on Rates, Grants
- Mar, 10 Australian Consumer Confidence May Fall on Rate Hikes, Says Westpac
- Mar, 09 Swiss CPI Fails to Impress
- Mar, 09 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.09.10
- Mar, 08 China Weekly 03.08
- Mar, 08 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.08.10
- Mar, 08 Japan's Current Account Surplus Tops Forecasts on Exports
- Mar, 05 U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged As Economy Losses 36K Jobs
- Mar, 05 German Factory Orders Advance More-Than-Expected, Euro Halts Two-Day Advance
- Mar, 05 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.05.10
- Mar, 04 Overnight Interest Rate Update 03.04.10
OPENING COMMENT
The Asian session of trade has been fairly quiet, with most currencies caught in some minor consolidation. The only two standouts have been Sterling which outperforms and the Yen which has been underperforming. The relative strength in the Pound has been attributed to the news that an analyst at Moody’s has come out saying that there is no threat at present for a downgrade to the US and UK sovereign credit ratings. Weakness in the Yen on the other hand has been more flow related, but the disappointing consumer confidence print has not helped. Global equity prices have been well bid, while commodities are also tracking higher on the day. While the economic calendar in the developed world has been subdued, the solid round of data out of China today has not been ignored and has very much helped to encourage investor risk appetite. The sustained recovery in the data has been highlighted by impressive industrial production figures, a shift into positive territory for inflation in November, and healthy new loan figures.
A recent study, brought to our attention by our Chief Strategist, shows that watching the flow of funds in the fast paced hedge fund world is something that can be used as a reliable leading indicator for market direction. The study suggests that an aggressive shift into higher yielding currencies and commodities by these funds is often a strong warning sign for a major capitulation in the markets. This would imply that over the medium-term, we could be looking at a pullback in carry trades, commodities and global equities.
Looking ahead, the European calendar is very light, with the only key release coming out of the UK in the form of PPI (0.5% expected) due at 9:30GMT. December trade is always choppy and unpredictable and we would caution that things will start to get even choppier over the coming days as desks lighten up ahead of the holidays. Please trade carefully.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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