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- Nov, 20 USD Graphic Rewind
- Nov, 20 Opening Comment
- Nov, 20 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.19.09
- Nov, 19 Japanese Yen Benefits on Risk Aversion, New Zealand Dollar Falters
- Nov, 19 U.K. Public Budget Posts Highest Short-Fall Since 1993
- Nov, 19 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.19.09
- Nov, 18 Swiss Franc Strengthens on U.S. Dollar Weakness, British Pound Falters
- Nov, 18 Canadian Consumer Prices Expand for the First Time in 5 Months
- Nov, 18 Opening Comment
- Nov, 18 Overnight Interst Rate Update 11.18.09
- Nov, 17 British Pound Remains Bid, Canadian Dollar Underperforms
- Nov, 17 U.K. Inflation Tops Forecast
- Nov, 17 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.17.09
- Nov, 17 USD Graphic Rewind
- Nov, 16 Canadian Dollar Outperforms, Japanese Yen Lags Behind
- Nov, 16 Euro-Zone Consumer Prices Weaken For Fifth Month in October
- Nov, 16 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.16.09
- Nov, 13 US Confidence Falls for Second Month
- Nov, 13 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.13.09
- Nov, 13 German GDP Posts 2nd Quarterly Advance; Rises to 0.7%
The Australian dollar rose to a fresh yearly high of 0.9370 against the greenback and remains the best performing currency on Thursday after bouncing back from the low (0.9261), while the New Zealand dollar weakened for the second-day, with the exchange rate crossing back below the 20-Day SMA (0.7377) after rising to a high of 0.7442 during the Asian trade.
The Australian dollar rose to a fresh yearly high of 0.9370 against the greenback, and remains the best performing currency on Thursday after bouncing back from the low (0.9261) ahead of the U.S. trade. The AUD/USD remains little changed from the previous day after moving nearly 78% of its ATR, and the high-yielding currency may continue to hold a narrow range over the next 24 hours of trading as market liquidity thins ahead of the weekend. Nevertheless, as the economic docket continues to reinforce an improved outlook for the $1T economy, the aussie-dollar may continue to trend higher throughout the month as policy makers anticipate GDP to expand at an annual rate of 1.75% this year and 3.25% in 2010, and the AUD/USD may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous year as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten policy going forward. However, as the central bank aims to “lessen gradually” the expansion in monetary and fiscal and expects the marked appreciation in the exchange rate to ‘constrain outputs,’ the RBA may keep rates on hold going into the following year in order to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation.
The New Zealand dollar weakened for the second-day, with the exchange rate crossing back below the 20-Day SMA (0.7377) after rising to a high of 0.7442 during the Asian trade, and the NZD/USD may continue to trend lower over the month as investors scale back expectations for higher interest rates in the isle-nation. The kiwi-dollar bounced back from the low (0.7332) after moving 83% of its average true range as the 30-minute RSI slipped into oversold territory, and the pair may continue to retrace the decline from the overnight session to fill-in the gap from the 200-SMA at 0.7386. Nevertheless, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are up 210bp in November after rising as much as 235bp in the previous month, and the pullback in interest rate expectations may continue to drag on the New Zealand dollar as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.
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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@fxcm.com
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