Germany’s Trade Balance surplus is expected to widen to 11.3 billion euro in September, while the broader Current Account surplus that includes cross-border investment money flows in addition to trade in goods and services is set to expand to 9.3 billion euro. The improvement is expected to come courtesy of a 2.5% uptick in exports after overseas sales dropped -2.8% in August. Exports have seen a shallow rebound since bottoming in April as close to $2 trillion in global fiscal stimulus helped underpin foreign demand for German manufactured goods. Indeed, the pace of contraction in Industrial Production likely moderated to -14.4% in the year to September, the slowest since December 2008. Looking beyond month-to-month volatility, however, the trend in Germany’s external position has pointed lower since late 2007, with the current release set to fall firmly along the same trajectory. Indeed, a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg calls for the Current Account to average about 4.25% of GDP this year and through 2010, the smallest contribution to Germany’s total output in 6 years.
For streaming currency market news and analysis, please visit http://forexstream.dailyfx.com
To reach Ilya regarding this article or subscribe to his email distribution list, please contact him at ispivak@dailyfx.com
DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.