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Japanese Yen Advances on Risk Aversion, New Zealand Dollar Remains Weighed

By David Song, Currency Analyst
05 November 2009 16:00 GMT

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The Japanese Yen strengthened against the greenback on Thursday to halt the three-day decline, and the USD/JPY may continue to retrace the advance from earlier this week as investors scaled back their appetite for risk ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm payroll report due out tomorrow at 13:30 GMT. The dollar-yen slipped to a low of 89.99 during the European trade and remains lower on the day after moving 85% of its ATR, and the pair may continue to hold below the 50-Day SMA at 90.92 throughout the U.S. session as the 30-minute RSI approaches overbought territory. Nevertheless, as global equity prices turn higher, we could see the exchange rate close above the 20-Day SMA (90.70) as market sentiment improves. However, as the USD/JPY lacks momentum to mark a fresh daily high, we are likely to see the pair hold a narrow range throughout the day as  investors weigh the outlook for global growth.

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The New Zealand dollar weakened against the greenback and remains the worst performing currency on the day after slipping to a low of 0.7160, and the NZD/USD may continue to hold below the 10-Day SMA (0.7302) over the remainder of the week as the downturn in the labor market reinforces a dour outlook for private spending. The kiwi-dollar has moved nearly 62% of its average true range and has bounced back from the low to cross back above the 50-Day SMA at 0.7198 however, we are likely to see the pair hold a narrow range over the next 24 hours of trading as market participants curb their temperament for higher-yielding currencies. Nevertheless, the rebound in global equities could follow through into the foreign exchange market and may push the New Zealand dollar higher as traders move into higher risk/reward investments, but we are likely to see the pair hold the narrow range from earlier this week as the economic outlook global growth remains highly uncertain. 

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05 November 2009 16:00 GMT