Australia's Trade Balance deficit expanded to –A$1.85 billion, the widest in 18 months, as imports surged 5.9% on the back of a jump in oil in inbound oil shipments with purchases of fuels and lubricants up 25% from the previous month. Overall, intermediate goods to be used in the production of finished products led other import categories, gaining 10% and hinting at a forthcoming pickup in manufacturing output. This may bode well for employment and ultimately help underpin spending after retail sales disappointed in September. However, it should be noted that the pickup is likely linked to the government’s commitment of A$22 billion to new infrastructure projects as part of its overall stimulus plan that had been put in place amid last year’s global recession and credit crunch; whether or not the economy will be able to stand on its own feet after expansionary policy is withdrawn remains clouded for the time being. The trade data offered some encouraging news on that regard, with exports were shown to have gained 4.7% as overseas gold sales rose by a staggering 64%. The spike was likely driven by investors’ increasing desire for an inflation hedge amid concerns that record-low interest rates and quantitative easing policies in much of the world’s top economies will drive devaluation of paper assets and produce runaway price growth. Spot gold prices hit a record-high $1092.20/ounce yesterday having rallied 24.8% so far this year.
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