New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose more than economists expected, registering at a 9-year high of 6.5% in the third quarter. The workforce shrank by -0.8% from the second quarter and -1.8% from the three months to September 2008. The disparity between preliminary forecasts and the actual result is notable: the economy shed twice as many jobs as economists predicted. Commenting shortly after the release, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard was direct about the smaller antipodean nation’s problems, saying “Financial markets treat us like Australia, but actually we are quite different,” warning that the recovery in New Zealand is “slower and more vulnerable” than that of its larger neighbor. Such dour rhetoric seems aimed directly at dispelling investors’ expectations that interest rate increases from the RBNZ will keep pace with those of the RBA, which have helped drive the currency higher and threatened the export sector. Overseas shipments make up close to 30% of the economy’s total output; an appreciating currency makes exports comparatively more expensive and drives away foreign demand. For our part, we have long argued that the RBNZ will shy away from raising rates before the second half of 2010.
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