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- Nov, 20 USD Graphic Rewind
- Nov, 20 Opening Comment
- Nov, 20 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.19.09
- Nov, 19 Japanese Yen Benefits on Risk Aversion, New Zealand Dollar Falters
- Nov, 19 U.K. Public Budget Posts Highest Short-Fall Since 1993
- Nov, 19 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.19.09
- Nov, 18 Swiss Franc Strengthens on U.S. Dollar Weakness, British Pound Falters
- Nov, 18 Canadian Consumer Prices Expand for the First Time in 5 Months
- Nov, 18 Opening Comment
- Nov, 18 Overnight Interst Rate Update 11.18.09
- Nov, 17 British Pound Remains Bid, Canadian Dollar Underperforms
- Nov, 17 U.K. Inflation Tops Forecast
- Nov, 17 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.17.09
- Nov, 17 USD Graphic Rewind
- Nov, 16 Canadian Dollar Outperforms, Japanese Yen Lags Behind
- Nov, 16 Euro-Zone Consumer Prices Weaken For Fifth Month in October
- Nov, 16 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.16.09
- Nov, 13 US Confidence Falls for Second Month
- Nov, 13 Overnight Interest Rate Update 11.13.09
- Nov, 13 German GDP Posts 2nd Quarterly Advance; Rises to 0.7%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at a record-low 2.5%. Although the outcome was widely expected, traders were clearly betting that policymakers will accelerate the timetable to begin raising the benchmark lending rate and sent the New Zealand Dollar tumbling when this proved not to be the case. Indeed, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard explicitly said that “in contrast to current market pricing, we see no urgency to begin withdrawing monetary policy stimulus, and we expect to keep [interest rates] at the current level until the second half of 2010,” reiterating the status quo on when tightening would begin.
For our part, noted in our weekly New Zealand Dollar forecast that policymakers will be wary of acting on rates or even projecting a hawkish bias to protect the still very fragile export sector which accounts for 30% of the economy’s total output and has suffered from a stronger currency. In fact, the RBNZ may have already embarked on a somewhat covert tightening campaign aimed at checking inflationary pressure while minimizing the impact on the NZD exchange rate. The central bank “leaked” an announcement that it would end some of its emergency lending programs enacted amid the credit crunch in November, a fact that it did not officially confirm via an official news release until about a day later. This move will gradually slow the flow of liquidity into the economy, reducing the pace of money supply growth and acting against inflation. Policymakers’ approach to the announcement suggests they were consciously trying to avoid a snow-ball effect that would send the New Zealand Dollar steeply higher. It appears that the RBNZ sees this approach to tightening as sufficient for the time being.
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