Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Outperforms to Retain Range- China Event Risk in Focus.
- NZD/USD Retains Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBNZ Meeting.
- USDOLLAR Rallies to Fresh High on Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- AUD/USD may threaten the broader range from back in February on a close above 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) as the RSI threatens the bullish trend.
- Even though Australia Employment is expected to show a 15.0K rebound in February, key data prices coming out of China – Australia’s largest trading partner – may heavily impact the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.
- Despite the ongoing range in AUD/USD, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped net-short, with the ratio currently standing at -1.04.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD appears to have a carved a near-term top as it continues to come off of former support zone around 0.7590 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion); downside targets remain favored as the RSI retains the bearish momentum.
- Despite the verbal intervention, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forward-guidance for monetary policy may heavily influence the near-term outlook for NZD/USD.
- Close below 0.7330 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7340 (23.6% retracement) may open the door for fresh lows.
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Read More:
The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Decline Resume But Volume Still Missing
NFP Setups in Focus- USD Breakout Plays
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
| Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11989.33 | 11993.75 | 11889.18 | 0.74 | 196.94% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar extends advance following the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; looks poised for a further advance as the RSI retains the bullish momentum and pushes back into overbought territory.
- Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, may see the Federal Reserve share a similar fate to its U.K. counterpart as wage growth continues to lag behind.
- Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish and need a break/close above 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,001 (78.6% expansion) should expose 12,073 (100% expansion)
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| Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payrolls (FEB) | 13:30 | 235K | 295K |
| Unemployment Rate (FEB) | 13:30 | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| Labor Force Participation Rate (FEB) | 13:30 | 62.9% | 62.8% |
| Change in Private Payrolls (FEB) | 13:30 | 225K | 288K |
| Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB) | 13:30 | 10K | 8K |
| Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (FEB) | 13:30 | -- | -18K |
| Change in Household Employment (FEB) | 13:30 | 250 | 96 |
| Underemployment Rate (FEB) | 13:30 | -- | 11.0% |
| Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (FEB) | 13:30 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (FEB) | 13:30 | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Trade Balance (JAN) | 13:30 | -$41.1B | -$41.8B |
| Consumer Credit (JAN) | 19:00 | $14.5000B | -- |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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