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USD Bias Hinges on NFP- Bullish Euro Setup Targets 1.37 on ECB

By , Currency Analyst
05 December 2013 16:50 GMT

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Retains Range-Bound Price Action Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

- Bullish Euro Momentum Gathers Pace on Less-Dovish European Central Bank (ECB)

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10628.54

10659.83

10613.56

-0.10

97.85%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Bias_Hinges_on_NFP-_Bullish_Euro_Setup_Targets_1.37_on_ECB_body_Picture_3.png, USD Bias Hinges on NFP- Bullish Euro Setup Targets 1.37 on ECB

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Remains Stuck in Range; Non-Farm Payrolls Reaction to Offer Clarity
  • Bearish Divergence in Relative Strength Index Continues to Take Shape
  • Interim Resistance: 10,658 (61.8 extension)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot- Closing Basis

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (NOV)

12:30

--

-20.6%

Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

13:15

Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 29)

13:30

320K

298K

Continuing Claims (NOV 22)

13:30

2800K

2744K

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q S)

13:30

3.1%

3.6%

Personal Consumption (3Q S)

13:30

1.5%

1.4%

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (3Q S)

13:30

1.9%

2.0%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q S)

13:30

1.4%

1.5%

Factory Orders (OCT)

15:00

-1.0%

-0.9%

Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:15

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains range-bound despite the upward revision in 3Q GDP, and the greenback may continue to track sideways ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll print as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

It seems as though there’s growing bets for a December taper as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart argues that the central bank should setup a more detailed timeline for its exit strategy, and a positive NFP print may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to move away from its easing cycle as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path.

With current market forecast calling for a 185K NFP print, we would need to see a better-than-expected outcome for a more meaningful topside break in the USDOLLAR, but the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index may continue to take shape should the employment report undermine the Fed’s scope to scale back its asset-purchase program.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. Dollar Trade Setups

Forex_USD_Bias_Hinges_on_NFP-_Bullish_Euro_Setup_Targets_1.37_on_ECB_body_ScreenShot064.png, USD Bias Hinges on NFP- Bullish Euro Setup Targets 1.37 on ECB

EURUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Bias_Hinges_on_NFP-_Bullish_Euro_Setup_Targets_1.37_on_ECB_body_Picture_1.png, USD Bias Hinges on NFP- Bullish Euro Setup Targets 1.37 on ECB
  • Clears Interim Resistance; Upward Trending Channel in Focus
  • Bullish Relative Strength Index Points to Further Advances
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3700 Pivot to 1.3716 (78.6 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0 retracement) to 1.3500 (38.2 retracement)

Three of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.46 percent rally in the Euro, and the single currency may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month as the European Central Bank (ECB) looks poised to retain a wait-and-see approach over the near-term.

Indeed, the topside break in the EURUSD has mitigated the risk of seeing a head-and-shoulders top in the exchange rate, and it seems as though the upward trending will continue to take in the days ahead as the RSI continues to carve a series of higher highs paired with higher lows.

As a result, the next topside objective comes in around the 1.3700 handle, but the weakening outlook for the euro-area may produce further headwinds for the single currency as it heightens the threat for deflation.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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05 December 2013 16:50 GMT