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Australian Dollar Fundamentals Bullish but watch the S&P 500

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
15 January 2010 22:52 GMT

A comparatively empty economic calendar in the week ahead will leave the high-yielding Australian Dollar mostly at the whims of broader movements in financial market sentiment. A potential exception may come on New Zealand Consumer Price Index data on the 19th; any large moves in the NZD may force sympathetic volatility in the highly-correlated Australian Dollar. Otherwise traders should keep a close eye on developments in the US S&P 500 and other key risk barometers. As our Senior Technical Strategist recently pointed out, the recent Average True Range (ATR) Dow Jones Industrial Average recently hit its lowest since the market topped in 2007. Exceedingly quiet price action leaves major equity indices at serious risk of breakout. Given heady advances through recent trading, we would claim that breakout risks are to the downside. - DR

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15 January 2010 22:52 GMT