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Oil Technical Positioning Points Sharp Losses Ahead

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist
09 December 2009 11:57 GMT

Commodities - Energy

Oil Positioning Points to Sharp Losses Ahead

Crude Oil (WTI)       $73.27       +$0.65       +0.90%
Oil prices are pushing the boundaries of support in the $72.86 - $75.13 congestion region, with a break below that opening the door for a run to test the psychologically significant $70 level. On the fundamental side of things, crude inventory data from the Department of Energy is the only item of significance on the economic calendar, with stocks expected to decline this week. The path risk appetite and US Dollar remain important to consider as well.

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Commodities - Metals

Metals Correct Higher But Outlook Remains Firmly Bearish

Gold       $1145.47       +$17.08       +1.51%
Gold has taken out would-be double-bottom support at $1137.57 but prices found a near-term bottom above $1127.63 near the lows from mid-November. Recent trading has been marked by a near-term falling channel, with a rebound now underway to test the upper boundary near $1152.00. The fundamental landscape is closely linked to the outlook for equities and the US Dollar.

Silver       $17.86       +$0.28       +1.58%
Silver has moved to re-test the broken bottom from late November at $17.78 on the upside having found support at $17.50, with a move back lower after the corrective rebound targeting the $17.00 level. Fundamentally, the landscape is much the same as that of gold, with the risk and dollar outlook in focus.

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09 December 2009 11:57 GMT