Talking Points:
- Euro May Decline if Soft Eurozone PMIs Inspire Bets on More ECB Stimulus
- Aussie, NZ Dollars to Fall as Yen Gains if PMIs Amplify Global Slowdown Fears
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional composite measure is expected to tick lower, pointing to slowing manufacturing- and service-sector growth. Economic news-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the month, suggesting analysts’ models may be over-estimating the vigor of the region’s recovery and opening the door for a downside surprise.
Such a result may amplify global slowdown fears and fuel continued risk aversion, boosting the Japanese Yen while punishing the sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars. The Euro may likewise come under pressure amid speculation that softening economic conditions could spur the ECB to expand monetary stimulus after the central bank’s President Mario Draghi opened the door for such a possibility at this month’s policy meeting.
New to FX? START HERE !
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | AUD | Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (JUL) | - | - | -0.2% |
| 01:00 | AUD | Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (AUG) | - | - | 0.1% |
| 01:45 | CNH | Caixin China PMI Mfg (SEP P) | - | 47.5 | 47.3 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | EUR | French GDP (YoY) (2Q F) | 1.0% | 1.0% | Medium |
| 06:45 | EUR | French GDP (QoQ) (2Q F) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Medium |
| 07:00 | EUR | French Markit Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) | 48.6 | 48.3 | Low |
| 07:00 | EUR | French Markit Services PMI (SEP P) | 51.0 | 50.6 | Low |
| 07:00 | EUR | French Markit Composite PMI (SEP P) | 50.4 | 50.2 | Low |
| 07:30 | EUR | German Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) | 52.6 | 53.3 | High |
| 07:30 | EUR | German Markit Services PMI (SEP P) | 54.5 | 54.9 | High |
| 07:30 | EUR | German Markit/BME Composite PMI (SEP P) | 54.6 | 55.0 | High |
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) | 52.0 | 52.3 | High |
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Markit Services PMI (SEP P) | 54.2 | 54.4 | High |
| 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (SEP P) | 54.0 | 54.3 | High |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0959 | 1.1053 | 1.1087 | 1.1147 | 1.1181 | 1.1241 | 1.1335 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5036 | 1.5224 | 1.5295 | 1.5412 | 1.5483 | 1.5600 | 1.5788 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
