Talking Points:
- September Fed Rate Hike Bets May Swell if US Retail Sales Tops Forecasts
- US Dollar Outperformed in Asia, Correcting After Yesterday’s Sharp Selloff
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see markets looking ahead to July’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 0.6 percent, marking an improvement over the prior month’s 0.3 percent decline.
On the whole, US data outcomes have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May. That opens the door for an upside surprise, which may fuel speculation about a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and boost the US Dollar.
The greenback outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to be corrective after yesterday’s broad-based decline produced the largest single-day drop in two months.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | NZD | BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUL) | 53.5 | - | 55.1 |
| 22:45 | NZD | Food Prices (MoM) (JUL) | 0.6% | - | 0.5% |
| 23:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance (JUL) | 44.0% | 42.0% | 40.0% |
| 23:01 | NZD | REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL) | 37.8% | - | 29.2% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN) | -7.9% | -4.8% | 0.6% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN) | 16.6% | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectation (AUG) | 3.7% | - | 3.4% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (JUL F) | 0.2% (A) | 0.2% | Medium |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI (YoY) (JUL F) | 0.2% (A) | 0.2% | Medium |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL F) | 0.3% (A) | 0.3% | Medium |
| 06:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL F) | 0.1% (A) | 0.1% | Medium |
| 07:15 | CHF | Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL) | -0.3% (A) | -0.1% | Low |
| 07:15 | CHF | Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL) | -6.4% (A) | -6.1% | Low |
| 11:30 | EUR | ECB July Meeting Minutes | - | - | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0755 | 1.0944 | 1.1051 | 1.1133 | 1.1240 | 1.1322 | 1.1511 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5353 | 1.5478 | 1.5545 | 1.5603 | 1.5670 | 1.5728 | 1.5853 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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